What happens if Brazil’s exgenerals break ranks in open court this week? In Brasília, police ring the Supreme Court and prosecutors explore plea deals; in the barracks, officers fall silent and lawyers swarm; on WhatsApp, loyalists test new narratives; in Congress and markets, coalition math and risk premiums shift as governors brace for unrest.
**IRAN** - 21,000 arrests, special courts, and fast-tracked death penalties follow June hostilities. The problem: security trumps law, with minorities and foreigners easiest targets.
**BELARUS** - BAHRL branded 'extremist'; six lawyers blacklisted. Meanwhile, up to 10-year terms hang over defense work, as the Justice Ministry tightens its grip.
**UNITED STATES** - Venezuelan migrants land in Guantánamo’s Camp 6, days in near-solitary. The catch: offshored detention evades courts, while tattoo profiling drives expulsions.
**ISRAEL–GAZA** - A second hostage batch walks free under the phased deal. But each handover buys only days, as both sides bargain with time and aid.
**GAZA STRIP** - IPC says famine now unfolding; consumption thresholds breached, acute malnutrition spikes in Gaza City. So, access becomes currency, and starvation turns into negotiating leverage.
**INTERNATIONAL** - Genocide scholars’ group votes 86%—on 28% turnout—that Israel meets the genocide definition. Signal matters politically; in courts, it’s citation, not verdict.
**BRAZIL** - Supreme Court opens Bolsonaro coup-plot trial. Unprecedented territory; the catch: judges test civilian authority while gauging military reaction and Congress’s appetite for confrontation.
**RUSSIA–CHINA** - Gazprom touts Power of Siberia 2: 50 bcm, 30 years, via Mongolia. The problem: Beijing withholds confirmation, keeping price leverage over a sanctioned seller.
Power is concentrating in Beijing.
By hosting Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un at a PLA show-of-force, Xi Jinping turns China from stakeholder to convener, signaling a hard-power hub that others must visit.
Washington’s 50% tariffs on India hand Beijing a diplomatic opening: the Putin–Xi–Modi tableau projects non‑Western coordination, even if interests diverge.
Moscow exploits European gaps too; suspected Russian jamming that reportedly forced Ursula von der Leyen’s plane to circle for an hour pushes Italy’s defense ministry and Brussels toward secrecy over openness, a quiet Russian win in the information domain.
In the United States, federal power meets state resistance: California’s legislature arms K‑12, CSU and community colleges with “early warning” alerts, raising the operational costs for DHS on campuses.
Meanwhile export-led Europe, notably Germany, loses leverage as China slows imports and U.S.
tariff threats grow.
The next phase favors conveners, jammers, and subnational actors over rule-makers with thin economic cushions.